Strategy Cases

Two rivals, one shift, different bets. New cases at 08:00, 11:30, 15:00, 18:30 and 22:00.

59 cases ·

Friday 9 October

  1. 59Lucent vs CiscoPhone calls move onto the internetBoth saw phone calls moving onto the internet. Cisco, a third of Lucent's size, paid $145m for a phone startup. Lucent paid about $20bn and lost the market.Overconfidence · Telecom equipment · 199922:00
  2. 58Alco vs Electro-MotiveRailways replace steam locomotives with diesel powerAlco sold 83% of America's diesel locomotives in 1935 and still treated them as a sideline, while Electro-Motive bet the whole company on them.Identity anchoring · Locomotives · 193918:30
  3. 57TiVo vs ComcastTV recording moves inside the cable subscriptionTiVo bet that the best recorder would win on its own. Comcast put its own version inside the box already sitting in 21 million homes.Best-product bias · Pay TV · 200311:30
  4. 56Qimonda vs SamsungMemory chips become a game only giants can affordBoth saw the memory chip price crash coming. Samsung kept building factories through it. Qimonda bet everything on a cleverer chip and ran out of money.Best-product bias · Memory chips · 200708:00

Thursday 8 October

  1. 55Sony vs AppleRecorded music moves from discs to computer filesSony owned both the music and the machine, so its players played only Sony-locked files. Apple let its player hold anyone's songs, and took the market in five years.Identity anchoring · Portable music · 200122:00
  2. 54Montgomery Ward vs SearsAmerican shoppers move to the new car suburbsBoth chains saw Americans moving to the suburbs. Sears built stores where they went. Ward's chairman banked the cash and waited for a crash that never came.Success trap · Department stores · 194618:30
  3. 53Circuit City vs Best BuyShoppers compare electronics prices online before they buyBoth chains could see shoppers would soon check prices online. Best Buy spent money on help and repairs. Circuit City fired its best salespeople and bought its own shares.Threat rigidity · Electronics retailing · 200315:00
  4. 52Mattel vs LegoChildren's play moves to screens and film charactersBoth saw children leaving toys for screens. Mattel spent $3.5bn buying a software company. Lego went back to the brick and let partners handle the screens.Escalation of commitment · Toys · 199911:30
  5. 51Nintendo vs SonyGames move from cartridges to cheap discsNintendo had already designed a disc console with Sony, then walked away. Its new machine took cartridges anyway, and the publishers it needed went to Sony.Success trap · Video games · 199408:00

Wednesday 7 October

  1. 50Uber vs DidiRide-hailing arrives in China's big citiesBoth moved early in China. Uber spent billions buying rides city by city, while Didi merged with its local rival and let riders pay the way they already paid.Overconfidence · Ride-hailing · 201418:30
  2. 49Walmart vs AmazonShopping moves from stores to the internetBoth saw the internet coming in 2000. Walmart made its website a side project and guarded store profits. Amazon spent first and won the habit of American shoppers.Success trap · E-commerce · 200015:00
  3. 48Miller vs Anheuser-BuschAmerican beer drinkers switch to lighter, low-calorie beerMiller invented light beer and led the category for 19 years. Anheuser-Busch dismissed it, then put its biggest name on a light beer and took the crown.Overconfidence · Brewing · 198211:30
  4. 47Sun Microsystems vs DellServers move from costly custom machines to cheap standard partsBoth saw cheap standard machines taking over the server room. Sun kept selling complete systems built around its own chips. Dell sold nothing else, and grew.Success trap · Computer servers · 200008:00

Tuesday 6 October

  1. 46Honda vs ToyotaHybrid cars go from a curiosity to a mainstream choiceBoth had a hybrid on sale before 2000. Honda built the most efficient car America had ever tested. Toyota built a family car that lost money on every sale.Best-product bias · Cars · 199922:00
  2. 45IBM vs MicrosoftPersonal computers move into offices and homesIBM built its first personal computer from other companies' parts, running Microsoft's software. IBM let Microsoft keep the right to sell that software to IBM's own rivals.Identity anchoring · Personal computers · 198118:30
  3. 44Motorola vs NokiaMobile phones move from analogue to digital networksMotorola shipped the world's first digital handheld phone and still lost the market to Nokia, which aimed at cheap and simple.Best-product bias · Mobile phones · 199215:00
  4. 43Bulova vs SeikoWatch timekeeping moves from fine mechanisms to cheap quartzBoth had the new quartz watch first. Bulova put it at the top of its price list. Seiko decided to build millions and sell them cheap.Success trap · Watches · 197011:30
  5. 42Arianespace vs SpaceXRocket boosters become reusable instead of throwawayEurope saw reusable rockets coming and chose a cheaper throwaway one. SpaceX chose to land its booster and fly it again.Fixed-pie thinking · Space launch · 201408:00

Monday 5 October

  1. 41Ford vs General MotorsCar buyers start wanting choice, style and monthly paymentsFord sold one cheap car to half of America. General Motors sold five kinds of car on monthly payments, and by 1927 it was outselling Ford.Identity anchoring · Cars · 192622:00
  2. 40Intel vs QualcommThe chip business moves from computers into phonesIntel made the chips inside the early BlackBerrys and Palm Treos, then sold that business to protect its computer chips. Qualcomm sold its own phones and kept the chips.Success trap · Computer chips · 200618:30
  3. 39Netscape vs MicrosoftThe web browser becomes a free part of the computerNetscape had the better browser and nearly all the users. Microsoft owned Windows, and gave its browser away with it.Best-product bias · Web browsers · 199515:00
  4. 38Tesco vs AldiBritish shoppers turn to limited-range discount supermarketsIn 2010 Aldi had 3% of the British market and was losing money. Tesco dismissed it, then spent years fighting it with a copycat chain. Aldi kept opening stores.Success trap · Grocery retail · 201011:30
  5. 37Aer Lingus vs RyanairCheap no-frills flying arrives in EuropeBoth saw cheap fares coming. Aer Lingus cut its prices and left its costs alone. Ryanair threw out the old airline and rebuilt it around one cheap seat.Threat rigidity · Airlines · 198608:00

Sunday 4 October

  1. 36SunPower vs First SolarSolar panels turn from premium technology into a cheap commoditySunPower made the world's best solar panel and charged a premium for it. First Solar made a cheaper one out of a different material and sold it to power stations.Best-product bias · Solar power · 201222:00
  2. 35Palm vs BlackBerryPocket organisers become always-on work email devicesBoth saw that pocket devices would carry work email. RIM held the device, the server and the network in one company; Palm split off its software and kept selling gadgets.Identity anchoring · Handheld devices · 200218:30
  3. 34DHL vs UPSOnline shopping turns parcels into a mass-market businessBoth saw home parcels becoming the big business. DHL bought Airborne and spent nearly $10bn chasing American market share; UPS kept its own dense network, and the challenger ran out of money.Sunk cost · Parcel delivery · 200315:00
  4. 33Reebok vs NikeSneakers turn from sports gear into everyday fashionReebok was number one in 1987 and Nike was losing money. Nike bet everything on one young player's story. Reebok kept chasing the next trend.Success trap · Sportswear · 198711:30
  5. 32Siebel vs SalesforceBusiness software moves from installed to rented onlineSiebel owned the sales-software market and lived on big upfront cheques. Salesforce rented the same tool by the month. Siebel tried the new model twice, then killed it twice.Success trap · Enterprise software · 200008:00

Saturday 3 October

  1. 31Borders vs Barnes & NobleBook buying moves from shops to the internetIn 2001 Borders handed its website to Amazon and let its own online team go. Barnes & Noble spent the same years building its own. Ten years later only one chain was left.Identity anchoring · Bookselling · 200122:00
  2. 30Pizza Hut vs Domino'sPizza orders move from phone calls to appsPizza Hut made the first pizza ordering app and still lost the ordering race. Domino's built its own system and let it run the whole business.Success trap · Fast food · 201018:30
  3. 29Sega vs NintendoVideo games move from 2D to 3D graphicsSega rushed its 3D console into shops early at $399. Nintendo waited a year, launched one great game, and charged $199. Sega never built another console.Sunk cost · Video games · 199515:00
  4. 28Intel vs NvidiaHeavy computing moves from the processor to the graphics chipBoth saw that graphics chips could do serious number work. Nvidia spent a decade teaching people to use them. Intel kept building graphics chips that acted like processors, then killed each one.Identity anchoring · Computer chips · 200711:30
  5. 27Sea-Land vs MaerskOcean freight moves from loose cargo to steel boxesSea-Land invented the shipping container, then bet on the fastest cargo ships ever built. Maersk arrived late and bet that being cheapest would beat being quickest.Success trap · Container shipping · 197308:00

Friday 2 October

  1. 26American Express vs VisaCredit cards become everyday money for ordinary peopleBoth saw that ordinary families would soon pay by card every day. Amex guarded its card as a club for the wealthy. Visa handed its card to thousands of banks.Identity anchoring · Payment cards · 198722:00
  2. 25Panasonic vs SamsungPicture-tube TVs give way to flat screensBoth saw flat screens coming. Panasonic built the world's biggest factories for the best-looking panel, plasma. Samsung built LCDs and sold them to everyone.Best-product bias · Televisions · 200618:30
  3. 24Bombardier vs EmbraerRegional jets grow into the 70-to-130-seat marketBoth saw that airlines wanted bigger regional jets. Bombardier stretched the jet that made it number one. Embraer built a new one.Empire building · Airliners · 199915:00
  4. 23eBay vs AlibabaChinese shoppers start buying onlineeBay bought China's market leader and charged a fee on every listing. Alibaba had nothing to lose, so it gave listings away and held the buyer's money until the goods arrived.Best-product bias · E-commerce · 200311:30
  5. 22Nokia vs SamsungPhones become app-driven touchscreen computersBoth saw phones turning into pocket computers. Nokia kept its own software and then bet everything on Microsoft. Samsung used Google's software and sold more phones than anyone.Success trap · Mobile phones · 200708:00

Thursday 1 October

  1. 21Airbus vs BoeingLong-haul flying shifts from hub connections to nonstop routesBoth could see that long-haul flying was changing. Airbus spent about $25bn on the biggest plane ever built. Boeing built a smaller plane that opened 550 new routes.Overconfidence · Airliners · 200022:00
  2. 20McDonald's vs JollibeeFast food becomes how Filipinos eat outMcDonald's brought the menu that had won in thousands of stores. A small Filipino chain with a few ice cream parlours bet on local taste and never gave up the lead.Best-product bias · Fast food · 198118:30
  3. 19Reuters vs BloombergTrading desks buy one screen instead of many servicesBoth saw the screens coming. Reuters added the one feature it was missing and bought up its rivals. Bloomberg sold one screen that ran a trader's whole day.Threat rigidity · Financial information · 199015:00
  4. 18International Harvester vs John DeereFarms consolidate into big businesses that buy big machinesBoth saw farms getting bigger and buyers wanting more power and credit. Deere scrapped its best-selling tractor. Harvester spread its money and borrowed.Empire building · Farm equipment · 196011:30
  5. 17General Motors vs ToyotaCar buyers turn to smaller, more reliable carsGM's own factory proved in 1984 that its workers could match Toyota. Instead of copying the method, GM bought robots and built Saturn as a separate company.Threat rigidity · Car manufacturing · 198408:00

Wednesday 30 September

  1. 16Gap vs ZaraFashion moves from two seasons a year to constant newnessGap was the world's biggest clothes retailer, and its own boss knew shoppers wanted newness sooner. Gap answered with advertising and new chains. Zara rebuilt how clothes get made.Success trap · Clothing retail · 200122:00
  2. 15GE vs PhilipsLighting moves from glass bulbs to LED chipsGE invented the first practical LED in 1962. In 2020 it sold its light bulb business for about $250m, while Philips, which spent billions buying LED makers, kept the market.Success trap · Lighting · 201118:30
  3. 14Kirin vs AsahiJapanese beer drinkers turn to a lighter, sharper tasteKirin sold six of every ten beers in Japan, and when drinkers asked for a lighter taste it defended its old one. Asahi had nothing left to defend.Success trap · Brewing · 198615:00
  4. 13CompuServe vs AOLOnline services move from hourly fees to flat monthly pricingBoth saw that ordinary families would decide the online business. CompuServe built a flat-rate family service and killed it in ten months. AOL switched everything to unlimited hours and nearly drowned.Success trap · Online services · 199611:30
  5. 12Goodyear vs MichelinCross-ply tyres give way to radial tyresGoodyear was the world's biggest tyre maker in 1967. It answered the new radial tyre with a half-step its old factories could make. Michelin had nothing old to protect.Sunk cost · Tyres · 196708:00

Tuesday 29 September

  1. 11Kmart vs WalmartDiscount stores become the way America shopsBoth saw discount stores coming and opened one in 1962. Kmart spent its money on more shops and prettier shops. Walmart spent its on warehouses, trucks and computers.Success trap · Discount retailing · 196222:00
  2. 10Britannica vs EncartaHome reference moves from printed books to cheap computer discsMicrosoft offered to put Britannica's encyclopedia on a disc in 1985. Britannica refused, to protect its door-to-door salesmen. Microsoft bought a weaker encyclopedia instead and sold it cheap.Best-product bias · Reference publishing · 198518:30
  3. 9Pan Am vs DeltaProtected international routes give way to open competitionBoth saw the rules changing. Pan Am bought a domestic airline to keep its world map whole. Delta kept its costs low and let its hubs fill the planes.Identity anchoring · Airlines · 197815:00
  4. 8U.S. Steel vs NucorSteelmaking moves from giant mills to small electric furnacesU.S. Steel spent its spare cash on an oil company. Nucor spent its on small electric furnaces, and decades later it was the bigger steelmaker.Sunk cost · Steel · 198211:30
  5. 7Xerox vs CanonCopying moves from rented giants to cheap desktop machinesXerox rented big machines and charged for every copy. Canon built a small copier you could buy in a shop, and the low end became the market.Success trap · Copiers · 197508:00

Monday 28 September

  1. 6Sony vs JVCThe video recorder moves into ordinary homesSony built the first home video recorder and kept the best picture to itself. JVC's machine recorded twice as long, and JVC let almost anyone build it.Best-product bias · Consumer electronics · 197522:00
  2. 5Yahoo vs GoogleOnline ads move from banner sales to keyword auctionsBoth saw that search would decide online advertising. Yahoo bought the company that invented search ads, then kept it at arm's length. Google had nothing else to protect.Success trap · Internet search · 200318:30
  3. 4de Havilland vs BoeingJet engines replace pistons on long-distance airline routesDe Havilland flew the world's first jet airliner, four years ahead of everyone. Boeing waited, got the US Air Force to pay for its jet, and ended up selling it to the world.Overconfidence · Airliners · 195215:00
  4. 3Blockbuster vs NetflixFilm rental moves from stores to instant streamingIn 2007 Blockbuster's online service was catching up with Netflix. Then a new boss raised prices on its best customers and went back to the shops. Netflix gave streaming away free.Threat rigidity · Video rental · 200711:30
  5. 2Kodak vs FujifilmFilm's collapse into digital imagingBoth saw digital cameras coming. Kodak tried to protect film. Fujifilm decided it was really a chemistry company and found new things to sell.Identity anchoring · Photography · 200308:00

Sunday 27 September

  1. 1TomTom vs GarminFree turn-by-turn navigation on smartphonesBoth saw phones coming for the satnav box. TomTom borrowed billions to buy its map supplier. Garmin lost that bidding war, kept its cash, and moved on to watches, planes and boats.Winner's curse · Navigation devices · 200722:00